Hi, I am in Ops at a medium-sized agency. I am working to get our Sales, CS and Finance all looking at our Sales Forecast the same way but of course they each have different goals (Sales: trying to close deals, CS is forecasting capacity and hiring needs based on sales coming in and Finance is trying to keep a conservative forecast to run the business off of). I'm wondering if others have worked through this challenge. I'm trying to decide if I should push for centralized logic that tells us what deals are likely to close and all groups run off of that or do I allow for varying logic by group. I'm thinking one needs to be the ultimate source of truth on the logic for what deals are going to come in, but wondering what others would do in this scenario.
Hi Scott, great question, definitely an opportunity I’ve run into. IMHO, when it comes to sales forecasts, there is one for the “company”, and then there are nuanced department-level ones. Both are important ones IMHO. Sales may be more optimistic on what they plan to close, but the company shouldn’t count on that until it manifests. Similarly, CS might be more conservative / realistic when it comes to predicting churn versus what the company might require. My recommendation would be to have one common company-level forecast that the exec team uses for board reporting / company forecasting, but delegate to each group their own modified version of that and have them call out where and why they deviate at the forecast call.
Hey Scott, I've dealt with this exact tension. What worked well at a large tech company where I managed enterprise accounts: every quarter, each teamsubmitted their own bottom-up forecast based on their pipeline and deal-level assumptions. These rolled up to leadership, who then reconciled them against the top-down target, which factored in company growth goals, board expectations, and macro context. The top-down number became the single source of truth for the company. But the bottom-up versions didn't disappear, they lived as the operational forecast each team worked from day to day. When there was a gap between bottom-up and top-down, that gap became THE conversation in the forecast call. The key that made it work: one shared definition of what counts as a "committed" deal vs. "best case" vs. "pipeline." Without that shared language, Sales and Finance will never agree on a number because they're literally counting different things. To your specific question about centralized vs. varying logic: I'd push for centralized deal-stage definitions and win probability assumptions (the source of truth), but let each group layer their own lens on top. Not everyone will see the same number. That's fine, as long as everyone starts from the same data and the deviations are explicit, not hidden.
It's impossible to treat new business and expansion/renewal the same. They have different cadences, stage weights, close rates, etc. You can have a unified financial forecasting process, but you're going to struggle to build a unified forecast call process between those two components of the business.
I think you take this in small iterations. Don't build for perfection, build for improving visibility over time. Simply start with one part of the project, and see what you get. It also matters who is driving this? Obviously from an Ops perspective you own the project, and it certainly feels like it's in your realm of responsibility. First place to start is to talk with each leader about what information they wish they had but don't yet. And then follow up with questions about value of better forecasts. From here you take this list and simply organize and start working on things. Making sure you include their feedback through the build process. Always know forecasts are never supposed to be 100% accurate. They are meant to improve over time, month by month, quarter by quarter, year by year. So setting realistic goals and managing expectations is criticval to the success.
